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Analysis by: Lisa Gonzalez Churchill Downs 07/06/2003
Race 1) Selections:
3-6-8
Confidence level:
5
Analysis:
#3 Red Rage (5-2)
ran a nice one in his debut last out & should improve in this race if the
trainer�s stats hold up. #6 Kentucky Woman (3-1) has tactical
speed & looks like the one to beat but she has had her chances maybe but a minor
award seems more likely. #8 Set To Sparkle (4-1) will be out
winging it in here but she gives in all the time so a minor award is probably
what she will get again here.
Fair odds line: n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions: none
tpe
Race 2) Selections:
6-1-9
Confidence level: 7
Analysis: #6 Chosen Chief (3-2) looks like the speed
of the speed in here & could take this bunch wire to wire. #1 Are You Down
(7-2) should get enough pace to shoot @ in here but will need a clear
trip to do more than get a minor share, threat no matter how you look @ it
though. #9 Airborne Command (5-1) usually just plods along in mid
pack waiting for others to give him a piece of the pie, which may happen in
here.
Fair odds line:
n/a for this
race
Wagering Suggestions:
none
hoe
Race 3) Selections:
5-9-8
Confidence level: 5
Analysis: #5 Lovin The Sunshine (5-2) flashed some speed in
her last which can sometimes be a sign of an impending form/figure breakthrough,
gets the call. #9 Cape Verde (3-1) debuts for a solid barn but
suspiciously shows only one work in the DRF, might be live w/ the barn trying to
hide her a bit, watch the board for more clues. #8 Seattle Weekend (5-1)
is better bred for longer but sometimes they can win @ this trip & barn knows
how to get this type ready, maybe.
Fair odds line:
n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions:
none
ist
Race 4) Selections:
1-6-7
Confidence level: 7
Analysis: #1 Proud Citizen (3-2) cuts back some &
drops a ton on class as barn tries to get him a win, the one to beat in here.
#6 Gold Tango (5-2) cuts back for a deadly barn & should be around @
the finish of this, contender.
#7 Mr Bassett (6-1) has yet to take a step backwards & might get a
bit overlooked in this spot as he comes off the long layoff but he has a shot
here.
Fair odds line: n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions: none
st
Race 5) Selections:
9-8-3
Confidence level: 6
Analysis: #9 Impetus (8-5) ran a beauty last time
out & anything like that race in here should get her the win. #8 Poydras
(2-1) makes the second start for a barn that excels in that category &
she ran decently in her debut so they have a nice foundation to build on, the
one to fear. #3 Destiny�s Design (9-2) ran a solid race last out
while coming off the bench in her second career try but will need to improve
again today to do more than get a minor share.
Fair
odds line: #6
Yester Morn (6-1)
Wagering Suggestions: none
id
Race 6) Selections:
8-5-11
Confidence level: 6
Analysis: #8 Chance Dance (8-5) has yet to finish off the
board & actually might be sitting in a forward move in here which would make her
the one to beat in here. #5 Chirimoya (7-2) is earning a very nice
living picking up minor awards & see no reason while she will change that today.
#11 Cozy One (5-1) looks similar to the choice but she put in a
career best race last out so she might bounce today so there is more risk w/
this one.
Fair odds line:
n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions:
none
sa
Race 7) Selections:
3-1/1a-7
Confidence level: 5
Analysis: #3 Sea Power (2-1) moves to the dirt for
his second career try which is what he is bred for & this barn does very well w/
this type the gets the nod. #1/1a T. Smith entry (3-1) both bring
different positives to the table for the barn but either could take this on
their best effort. #7 Lunch Bunch (5-1) is bred to handle the
stretchout in here & should be able to improve in his second off the layoff,
threat @ price.
Fair odds line:
n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions:
none
at
Race 8) Selections:
7-6-1
Confidence level: 6
Analysis: #7 Chief Negotiator (9-5) looked sharp when
winning his last & now stretches out for a barn that has good numbers in all the
relevant areas, major player. #6 Defrere�s Vixen (5-2) has been in
w/ much better in every route try so he could be very tough vs. this kind, the
one to fear. #1 Mohigan Hill (6-1) has improved steadily over his
last 4 & if he can continue that trend he might get a share @ a very nice price.
Fair odds line:
#4 Formal Decree (7-1), #11 Hold That Glitter (7-1)
Wagering Suggestions: none
pe
Race 9) Selections:
4-7-6
Confidence level:
8
nalysis: #4 Gretchen�s Star (7-5) likes to win & should be
approaching peak form in his third off the layoff, the race goes through him.
#7 Red Mountain (7-2) can get a share in this fairly modest heat but
is unlikely to get more unless something odd goes on. #6 Stokosky (9-2)
showed some talent last year but has not looked as good this year but he should
be able to get a share in the mostly below par race.
Fair odds
line: n/a for
this race
Wagering Suggestions: none
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Race 10) Selections:
1-2-3
Confidence level:
7
Analysis: #1 Cuvee (8-5) has leveled both fields he has
faced thus far & he should be hard to contain once he decides to go, the one to
beat. #2 Limehouse (2-1) looks like the only one capable of
staying w/ the choice but he is coming off a layoff, which might be all the edge
the choice needs. #3 Bustin Out (4-1) improved nicely to break his
maiden in his second career start but he will need to do so again in here if he
is to get more than a minor prize.
Fair
odds line:
n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions: none
ss
Race
11) Selections:
5-1-2
Confidence level:
6
Analysis: #5 Mon General (2-1) may have come up short in
last as he came off a long rest but he should be ready for this one, gets the
call. #1 Ferrazzi (4-1) he usually can grab a share but it would
seem he will need quite a few breaks to do more than that here. #2 Soldier
Song (5-1) makes his first try vs. claimers in here & that might be
enough of an edge to get him a share but little more.
Fair odds line:
n/a for this race
Wagering Suggestions: none th