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surethingselections.com analyst: Dave Gonzalez
Churchill Downs 5/3/08
Race 1) The picks:
7-2-6 Confidence
level: 5
#7 Communicated (3-1) may be the speed of the speed here as he
ships in to stretch out for his route debut & this one likes to win or pack it
in so use on top or not @ all.
#2 Bullet Rain (7-2) ships in w/ efforts that put him in the mix
here if he is ready off a break for a barn that has come out a bit cool here
thus far, odds call.
#6 Sale Pending (5-1) ships back in for this w/ a bunch of steady
albeit average efforts that make him a contender in here though he does seem
like more of an also ran candidate than a winner.
Other contenders: #8 Catmantoo 6-1
Race 2) The picks: 10-5-4
Confidence level: 5
#10 Loving Vindication (3-1) has improved w/ each race to date &
if she continues that trend here off a rest while also rising to take on winners
for the 1st time then she should be a major player.
#5 B R’s Girl (5-1) tossed a career race last out & anything like
that makes her tough here but she could bounce so demand a fair price.
#4 Looney Lynda (5-1) improved last out while taking on winners
for the 1st time as she made just her 2nd career run so if
she can show more again here while coming off a break then she might be in the
mix here.
Other contenders: #7 Sly Storm 5-1
Race 3) The picks: 2-9-4
Confidence level: 4
#2 Spin Master (4-1) has the class & efforts that put him there if
he is ready to go off a break for a barn that does well w/ similar, maybe.
#9 Forest Attack (4-1) likes to win & if he can continue to run
race s like his last pair then he will have a shot in here.
#4 Forty Grams (4-1) is virtually identical to the choice here so
he too looks like a possibility in this race.
Other contenders: #6 First Defence 4-1
Race 4) The picks: 1-11-4
Confidence level: 5
#1 A Diehl (3-1) ran well but probably needed his last as he came
off a rest so he may improve as he stretches out to make his route debut today
for a shrewd outfit, maybe.
#11 Cherokee Artist (4-1) probably needed his debut last out & now
stretches out for his route debut under the tutelage of a barn that excels w/
horses like this one, major player.
#4 Screen To Screen (4-1) bounced last out after a career run 2
back but he could easily rebound here for an ok barn, threat.
Other contenders: #3 Premium Gold 6-1
Race 5) The picks: 8-4-3
Confidence level: 6
#8 Wanderin Boy (2-1) drops in class for his return from a long
break but if he is ready to go off the bench then he has the class, stamina and
figures to handle these.
#4 Junior College (4-1) regressed a bit last out in his 2nd
off a break after a solid run off the bench so he could rebound here for a solid
barn, dangerous.
#3 Noonmark (5-1) has efforts that would put him in the mix here if
he is ready off a break for a barn that is overall solid but that has struggled
here so demand a fair price on this one.
Other contenders: #5 Island Warrior 5-1
Race 6) The picks: 4-7-1
Confidence level: 5
#4 Game Face (3-1) bounced last out after a career run 2 back but
she could easily rebound here if she is ready off the bench for a barn that can
win w/ this type, call.
#7 Alina (3-1) regressed a tiny bit last out in her 2nd
off a break after a career race off a rest so she could rebound here for a
lethal combo, dangerous.
#1 Secret Gypsy (4-1) ran a nice one to win her debut last out but
has not been seen since so she needs to be ready off the break here & she must @
least repeat that effort while tackling winners & a longer trip for the 1st
time, odds call.
Other contenders: #5 Informed Decision 5-1
Race 7) The picks: 9-8-1
Confidence level: 8
#9 Dreaming Of Anna (7-5) has never run a bad turf race & if she
is ready off a rest w/ her typical turf run then she will be hard to deny
because she can handle any course condition, call.
#8 Ventura (4-1) could be sitting on a nice effort here in her 3rd
off a break as she returns to the grass, contender.
#1 You Go West Girl (5-1) ran well to win last out but she still
probably needed that effort so she might show more in here which would make her
a threat for @ least a share in this race.
Other contenders: #3 Danzon 8-1 on
dirt: 7-9-1-8
Race 8) The picks: 5-1-7
Confidence level: 8
#5 Sugar Swirl (3-2) bounced last out & won anyway after a career
run 2 back but she could easily rebound here for an ok barn, call.
#1 Hystericalady (8-5) so far has not looked like the killer she
once was in the 2 starts she has made this season but she did improve last out &
she might be able to show a bit more so leaving her for dead seems a bit too
drastic, odds call.
#7 Miraculous Miss (7-2) has efforts that give her a chance in
here if she is ready w/ her best off a break but demand value.
Other contenders: #4 Miss Macy Sue 5-1
Race 9) The picks: 4-1-6
Confidence level: 5
#4 Thorn Song (3-1) returns to a strip where he has yet lose after
he tossed a career race last out off the bench & anything like that makes him
tough here but he could be poised to bounce while also looking like more of a
nibbler than a winner so demand a square price.
#1 Out Of Control (4-1) could be sitting on a nice effort here in
his 3rd off a break for a barn that knows how to win this one must be
seen as a major player here.
#6 Yate’s Black Cat (5-1) is similar to but a bit slower than the
choice & this one is also coming off a rest today, outside shot.
Other contenders: #2 War Monger 6-1
Race 10) The picks: 20-7-11
Confidence level: 8
#20 Big Brown (3-2) has a few well documented hurdles to overcome
but he may also be the next super horse & if that is the case he should be able
to build on what he has shown thus far & make quick work of these.
#7 Big Truck (8-1) bounced last out on a poly strip after a career
run 2 back that is stronger than it looks so if he rebounds & improves on that
run a bit he get a share here @ a nice price.
#11 Z Humor (9-1) may be rounding back to top form gradually for a
barn that knows how to win, sleeper potential.
Other contenders: #8 Visionaire 9-1
Race 11) The picks: 8-6-4
Confidence level: 4
#8 Manager Boire (4-1) probably needed his latest as he came off a
rest so he may improve for a barn that does very well w/ similar.
#6 Chief Gone West (4-1) has some efforts that give him a small
chance in here if he is ready w/ his best off a break but demand value.
#4 Admirality (5-1) has improved w/ each race to date & if he
continues that trend here while coming off a layoff then he may be the one.
Other contenders: #12 Evade 5-1
Race 12) The picks: 5-3-2
Confidence level: 4
#5 Maiara (4-1) has races that put him right there if he is ready
off a break for a barn that can win w/ similar, threat.
#3 Pious Ashley (4-1) may have needed his debut last out yet he
still ran an effort that makes him tough here.
#2 E Major (5-1) has all the tools to come out running for a barn
that can win w/ similar so he may be live.
Other contenders: #11 Crimson Hope 5-1
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