surethingselections.com
analyst Dave Gonzalez
Churchill Downs
11/04/11
Overall a decent card with some solid low odds runners but also some nice
potential long shots to shoot for.
Race 1)
Selections: 1-8-9-6
Confidence level: Average
#1 Privilaged 3-1 may be the speed of the speed as he comes off a
long break here so he might be able to take these coast to coast, call.
#8 Rothko 3-1 tossed a career best last out & if he can avoid a
bounce in this race while shipping in off a short rest then he would be very
tough to deny here, odds call.
#9 Shrill 4-1 is very similar to the 2nd choice in here
as he comes off break for a solid barn, a possibility.
Other contenders: #6 De Price 5-1
Race 2) Selections: 9-6-8-1
Confidence level: Above average
#9 Katz My Song 2-1 looks like the speed & he may be sitting on a
break through effort here for a barn that knows how to win, call.
#6 Chilled 4-1 is better than his last which he may have needed
anyway so he could be tough as he stretches out while dropping in class for
this, contender.
#8 Relinquere 7-2 improved last out & could easily do so again in
here for a lethal barn, a possibility.
Other contenders: #1 Post Ranch 6-1
Race 3) Selections: 1-7-3-4
Confidence level: Average
#1 Nacho Friend 3-1 ships in off a break & looks like the main
speed for a barn that does nice work w/ similar so he gets the call on a sloppy
surface.
#7 Equestrio 3-1 may be rounding back to peak form for a
barn that loves to win races in the under card of big days, maybe.
#3 Gladding 5-1 has speed & usually runs his race so he should be
in the mix from the start & could hang on for a share.
Other contenders: #4 Mister Marti Gras 8-1
Race 4) Selections: 5-4-10-11
Confidence level: Average
#5 Southern Dude 3-1 should get a nice trip in here & may be
circling back to his top figure debut as he ships in for his 3rd
start off a break so he might keep his unbeaten streak going.
#4 Cornpiper 7/2 may be rounding back to peak form for a barn that
knows how to win here, a possibility.
#10 Fast Bullet 4-1 may be the speed of the speed from the outside
so he has to be seen as a major player in here.
Other contenders: #11 Wine Police 6-1
Race 5) Selections: 2-6-7-1
Confidence level: Above average
#2 Sum Of The Parts 2-1 seems like the speed of the speed so if he
can get out front he might prove hard to catch on a wet strip, call.
#6 Secret Circle 5/2 has been very impressive in his 2 starts
winning on the lead & from just off & while he is bred to handle a wet track
that does not mean he can in reality so demand value even though on paper this
one looks the one to beat.
#7 Holdin Bullets 5-1 has a license to be any kind if he comes
back running off a decent looking debut way back in early spring, odds call.
Other contenders: #1 Seeker 6-1
Race 6) Selections: 14-10-2-9
Confidence level: Above average
#14 Somali Lemonade 2-1 improved in her 2nd career try
last out & may do so again here as she tries to remain undefeated.
#10 Elusive Kate 2-1 makes her US debut off summer very impressive
European runs so she might be very tough in here if that form translates & given
that the course is an off one for this she should be able to do that.
#2 Dayatthespa 5-1 looks like one of the speeds so she should be
in the thick of this for a long time as there is not much speed signed on here,
contender.
Other contenders: #6 Sweet Cat 8-1, #9 Pure Gossip 8-1
Race 7) Selections: 3-12-6-10
Confidence level: Average
#3 Turbulent Descent 3-1 may not get tins of pace & is coming off
a break too so demand value on this one but if she runs back to her last this
race will be over.
#12 Pomeroys Pistol 5-1 has improved w/ every race since her
disaster race on this track so the question is was it the track or her form then
that did her in, odds call.
#6 Switch 5-1 almost certainly needed her last so if she gets back
into form then she figures in the mix here.
Other contenders: #10 Tamarind Hall 6-1
Race 8) Selections: 9-11-4-5
Confidence level: Solid
#9 My Miss Aurelia 6/5 has never taken a step backwards or lost a
race but she will get a wet track here as well as 2 turns for the first time &
her pedigree suggests she should handle both but until they do it you never know
so do not accept paltry odds.
#11 Weemissfrankie 3-1 is similar to the choice but w/out the
flashy figures but in this ones corner is her ability to come from off the pace
& she has shown she can handle 2 turns, dangerous.
#4 Miss Netta 5-1 improved in her 2nd career start last
out despite an awful start so if she can show more here, get a better start &
take to an off track as well as 2 turns then she could be right there.
Other contenders: #5 Grace Hall 8-1
Race 9) Selections: 5-2-6-9
Confidence level: Above average
#5 Nahrain 2-1 makes her US debut off summer very impressive
European runs where she has improved w/ each start so she might be very tough in
here if that form translates & given that the course is an off one for this she
should do so.
#2 Stacelita 5/2 has the credentials & loves to win but this one
may have been meeting some suspect foes on turf over here, odds call.
#6 Announce 4-1 almost always fires overseas so if she can
translate that to the US she should be right there @ the wire.
Other contenders: #9 Shared Account 7-1
Race 10) Selections: 3-5-6-8
Confidence level: Average
#3 It’s Tricky 3-1 may be rounding back to top form for a lethal
barn so this one could be the one to beat as she might be able to get a nice
trip in here from close range.
#5 Ask The Moon 3-1 bounced off 2 career tries but this one might
be tougher shipping back east for a dangerous barn that knows what they are
doing so this one might take these coast to coast.
#6 Royal Delta 4-1 has some erratic figures but her best makes her
a contender in here & she might be sitting on a big one.
Other contenders: #8 Plum Pretty 5-1
Race 12) The picks: 5-4-3-1
Confidence level: Above average
#5 Totemtale 3/2 looks like the main speed here & he should be
able to clear & take these coast to coast.
#4 Scuff 4-1 has improved w/ each race to date & if he continues that
trend here in his 2nd off a rest he may be the one.
#3 Shrill 9/2 put in a useful debut run last out so if he builds
on that in his two-turn debut for a barn that shows good results w/ similar then
he could be the one.
Other contenders: #1 Gentle Tap 6-1